It was two months ago that Morgan Rogers was standing on the Stadium of Light pitch, seeming perplexed while Unai Emery scolded him for missing a penetrating pass. At that point, as the club failed to win in six, doubts remained if his displays were a symptom or the reason for the side's more general malaise.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
In the latest match, though, the manager's outburst proved to be far more favourable. When the England international curled home his brace-sealing goal to reclaim Villa's lead, Emery discarded his jacket, spread his arms and bellowed. The team marched on to a 10th successive win and after failing to win any of their first six games, are somehow just three points behind pace-setters Arsenal.
Is This Team Serious Title Contenders?
That’s a particularly tough question to address. Past precedent, the perceived status of Villa, indicates otherwise. Furthermore, their performances haven't been completely commanding in many games, while the positive results have piled up.
Per statistical analysis, twice all season have Villa registered an expected goals figure significantly higher than their opponents. For a side that have put together ten consecutive victories, Villa seem strangely fragile – however at the moment the fine lines are going in their favour.
The Reliant Strategy
The prevailing tactic appears to be to trade blows with an opponent and wait for their talisman to rescue them with some crisp finishes. This was the case at Leeds, it occurred against West Ham, and again when facing United.
The initial strike originated from a brilliant finish, arced precisely inside the upright from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal acted as a somewhat messier replica of his first as he pounced on a setup by his strike partner.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Common sense dictates no. In the recent win, Manchester United managed a greater number of attempts and more efforts on goal. The team has won each of their last eight by the narrowest of margins. The defence has been breached in all but one of those games.
Regression to the mean could be the biggest rival they will encounter in the near future. The forward, surely, cannot keep on thrashing his shots past despairing goalkeepers indefinitely.
A Case for Belief
Perhaps there is a different scenario whereby, instead of results trending towards performances, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Vital cogs may yet return to peak condition.
- The centre-forward could start adding to his goal tally.
- The attacking talent could transform into the force he was at Borussia Dortmund.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are set to regain fitness, fortifying an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.
Perhaps there is in that the potential for a sustained push, yet it seems unlikely can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.
Relishing the Unlikely
But then, this is a surprise. Few believed Aston Villa would sit third at Christmas. And without a doubt earlier this season, few could imagine the young forward now would be leading a championship pursuit while establishing himself as an essential player for the national team.
The current run is to be savoured precisely because it feels so unlikely. When Rogers positioned himself before the home supporters when the game ended orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be relishing every moment. Which he fully merits. Such periods are uncommon in the sport and should be relished.
